polyarb

The disciplined taker crosses the spread only when a gap's net edge beats its fees. The line is cumulative P&L over time; each green dot is one booked trade. Click any dot to jump to that trade in the table below.

A token's price is the market's probability, so a more likely event should cost more. Threshold markets on the same asset and date form a ladder where a bigger move is always less likely than a smaller one, so the less likely rung should always be the cheaper one. When the market misprices this and the more likely rung is trading cheaper, we buy that rung and pair it against the other. The payout is locked no matter what, so the mispricing is risk-free profit. New to this? Read How it works.

Ladder gaps

Each row is a detected rung pair. TRADED rows are inversions whose edge beat the fees; expand one to see both rungs and the math.

time	market	action	ask sum	gap¢	fees¢	net edge¢	P&L
08-06 07:10:35	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.4960	+50.40	3.72	+46.68	+233.40
Market Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? open market ->Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (500 shares per leg) Yes0.226 No0.270 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? YES 0.226 cheaper, yet more likely Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? YES 0.730 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.226 + buy NO 0.270 = ask sum 0.4960 - fees 3.72¢ = net edge +46.68¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 19:58:39	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.9930	+0.70	0.13	+0.57	+0.58
Market GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (102 shares per leg) Yes0.003 No0.990 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.003 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? YES 0.010 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.003 + buy NO 0.990 = ask sum 0.9930 - fees 0.13¢ = net edge +0.57¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 19:58:11	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.9855	+1.45	0.20	+1.25	+2.07
Market GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (166 shares per leg) Yes0.003 Noavg 0.983 124 @ 0.980 42 @ 0.990 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.003 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? YES 0.017 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.003 + buy NO 0.983 = ask sum 0.9855 - fees 0.20¢ = net edge +1.25¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 19:42:51	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.0064	+99.36	0.06	+99.30	+496.49
Market GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (500 shares per leg) Yesavg 0.004 300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010 No0.002 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? YES 0.998 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.002 = ask sum 0.0064 - fees 0.06¢ = net edge +99.30¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 19:42:51	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.0485	+95.15	0.47	+94.69	+473.43
Market GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (500 shares per leg) Yesavg 0.004 300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010 Noavg 0.044 30 @ 0.015 30 @ 0.037 21 @ 0.038 419 @ 0.047 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch? YES 0.956 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.044 = ask sum 0.0485 - fees 0.47¢ = net edge +94.69¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 19:42:51	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.0299	+97.01	0.29	+96.72	+483.60
Market GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (500 shares per leg) Yesavg 0.004 300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010 Noavg 0.025 100 @ 0.012 50 @ 0.021 350 @ 0.030 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? YES 0.975 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.025 = ask sum 0.0299 - fees 0.29¢ = net edge +96.72¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 19:42:51	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.0304	+96.96	0.30	+96.67	+483.33
Market GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (500 shares per leg) Yesavg 0.004 300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010 Noavg 0.026 380 @ 0.020 120 @ 0.045 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? YES 0.974 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.026 = ask sum 0.0304 - fees 0.30¢ = net edge +96.67¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 19:42:51	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	TRADED	0.8027	+19.73	1.65	+18.07	+90.36
Market GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (500 shares per leg) Yesavg 0.004 300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010 Noavg 0.798 15 @ 0.740 100 @ 0.750 100 @ 0.800 110 @ 0.810 130 @ 0.820 45 @ 0.830 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? YES 0.202 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.798 = ask sum 0.8027 - fees 1.65¢ = net edge +18.07¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)
07-31 18:32:46	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	TRADED	0.9696	+3.04	0.67	+2.37	+11.83
Market GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? open market -> Size and fills (500 shares per leg) Yesavg 0.950 100 @ 0.948 400 @ 0.950 No0.020 Compare (a YES price is the market's probability) GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? YES 0.950 cheaper, yet more likely GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? YES 0.980 implied dearer, yet less likely The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture. The math buy YES 0.950 + buy NO 0.020 = ask sum 0.9696 - fees 0.67¢ = net edge +2.37¢ Execution Taker trade (crossed the spread)

time

market

action

ask sum

gap¢

fees¢

net edge¢

P&L

08-06 07:10:35

Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.4960

+50.40

3.72

+46.68

+233.40

Market

Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? open market ->Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (500 shares per leg)

Yes0.226

No0.270

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? YES 0.226 cheaper, yet more likely

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? YES 0.730 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.226 + buy NO 0.270 = ask sum 0.4960 - fees 3.72¢ = net edge +46.68¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 19:58:39

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.9930

+0.70

0.13

+0.57

+0.58

Market

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (102 shares per leg)

Yes0.003

No0.990

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.003 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? YES 0.010 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.003 + buy NO 0.990 = ask sum 0.9930 - fees 0.13¢ = net edge +0.57¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 19:58:11

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.9855

+1.45

0.20

+1.25

+2.07

Market

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (166 shares per leg)

Yes0.003

Noavg 0.983

124 @ 0.980 42 @ 0.990

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.003 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? YES 0.017 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.003 + buy NO 0.983 = ask sum 0.9855 - fees 0.20¢ = net edge +1.25¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 19:42:51

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.0064

+99.36

0.06

+99.30

+496.49

Market

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (500 shares per leg)

Yesavg 0.004

300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010

No0.002

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? YES 0.998 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.002 = ask sum 0.0064 - fees 0.06¢ = net edge +99.30¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 19:42:51

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.0485

+95.15

0.47

+94.69

+473.43

Market

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (500 shares per leg)

Yesavg 0.004

300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010

Noavg 0.044

30 @ 0.015 30 @ 0.037 21 @ 0.038 419 @ 0.047

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch? YES 0.956 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.044 = ask sum 0.0485 - fees 0.47¢ = net edge +94.69¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 19:42:51

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.0299

+97.01

0.29

+96.72

+483.60

Market

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (500 shares per leg)

Yesavg 0.004

300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010

Noavg 0.025

100 @ 0.012 50 @ 0.021 350 @ 0.030

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? YES 0.975 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.025 = ask sum 0.0299 - fees 0.29¢ = net edge +96.72¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 19:42:51

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.0304

+96.96

0.30

+96.67

+483.33

Market

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (500 shares per leg)

Yesavg 0.004

300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010

Noavg 0.026

380 @ 0.020 120 @ 0.045

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? YES 0.974 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.026 = ask sum 0.0304 - fees 0.30¢ = net edge +96.67¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 19:42:51

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?

TRADED

0.8027

+19.73

1.65

+18.07

+90.36

Market

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (500 shares per leg)

Yesavg 0.004

300 @ 0.003 10 @ 0.004 110 @ 0.005 10 @ 0.006 10 @ 0.007 10 @ 0.008 10 @ 0.009 40 @ 0.010

Noavg 0.798

15 @ 0.740 100 @ 0.750 100 @ 0.800 110 @ 0.810 130 @ 0.820 45 @ 0.830

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? YES 0.004 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? YES 0.202 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.004 + buy NO 0.798 = ask sum 0.8027 - fees 1.65¢ = net edge +18.07¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

07-31 18:32:46

GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?

TRADED

0.9696

+3.04

0.67

+2.37

+11.83

Market

GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? open market ->GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? open market ->

Size and fills (500 shares per leg)

Yesavg 0.950

100 @ 0.948 400 @ 0.950

No0.020

Compare (a YES price is the market's probability)

GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? YES 0.950 cheaper, yet more likely

GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? YES 0.980 implied dearer, yet less likely

The more probable event is trading cheaper. That inversion is the mispricing we capture.

The math

buy YES 0.950 + buy NO 0.020 = ask sum 0.9696 - fees 0.67¢ = net edge +2.37¢

Execution

Taker trade (crossed the spread)

Ladder arbitrage

Ladder gaps